Russia–NATO risk ladder

Reviewed 23m ago.

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• get_overview

  Start here. Annual risk for the five escalation levels today, a year ago and in one year (optimistic / baseline / pessimistic), plus average intelligence tone per country. Every number carries its provenance (published / model / manual).

• get_risk_ladder

  Annual risk of each level on a date between one year ago and one year ahead of the data date. Past dates use the published forecast archive; future dates use the scenario model and also return cumulative risk from the data date. Optional what-if assumptions.

• get_forecast_history

  Published Metaculus probabilities by 2035 for an attack on European NATO or a seizure of Baltic territory, with the annual conversion for each observation.

• get_intelligence_assessments

  Public assessments by intelligence services and governments of 12 countries, newest first, with hand-coded tone from -2 to +2 for a military attack and for hybrid attacks, averages by country, check dates and links.

• get_sources

  The 51 sources with what each says, how it is used, countries, check date and link. Filter by type (intel, research, method, forecast), country or text.

• get_other_forecasts

  Prediction markets and other numeric forecasts with a different event or horizon (Manifold, Polymarket, Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, Atlantic Council), with check dates and corrections.

• get_changelog

  Significant changes to data, model and site, and the corrections history (what was wrong, what changed, who reported it).

• get_methodology

  Level definitions, formulas, current assumptions with check dates, the verbal probability scale and what the model deliberately does not do.