Estimate Assistant

Generate data-driven task estimates with confidence intervals and accuracy tracking: $ARGUMENTS

Current Estimation Context

• Team velocity: !git log --oneline --since='1 month ago' | wc -l commits in last month
• Historical data: Git history analysis for similar task completion patterns
• Code complexity: !find . -name "*.js" -o -name "*.ts" -o -name "*.py" | head -5 | xargs wc -l 2>/dev/null | tail -1 || echo "No code files"
• Sprint tracking: Linear task completion times and estimate accuracy

Task

Execute comprehensive task estimation with historical analysis and confidence modeling:

Estimation Focus: Use $ARGUMENTS for task description analysis, historical pattern matching, complexity assessment, or team velocity calculation

Estimation Framework:

1. Historical Pattern Analysis - Analyze similar past tasks, extract completion time patterns, identify velocity trends, calculate accuracy metrics
2. Complexity Assessment - Evaluate technical complexity, assess scope uncertainty, identify risk factors, estimate effort distribution
3. Team Velocity Integration - Calculate sprint velocity, analyze individual capacity, assess team expertise, factor in availability constraints
4. Confidence Modeling - Generate confidence intervals, assess estimation uncertainty, identify risk factors, provide accuracy ranges
5. Calibration Analysis - Compare past estimates vs actuals, identify systematic biases, calculate estimation accuracy, improve prediction models
6. Context Integration - Factor in current sprint load, assess team familiarity, evaluate external dependencies, integrate deadline pressure

Advanced Features: Multi-point estimation, Monte Carlo simulation, reference class forecasting, estimation accuracy tracking, bias correction algorithms.

Quality Metrics: Estimation confidence levels, accuracy historical trends, velocity stability, complexity correlation analysis.

Output: Data-driven estimates with confidence intervals, historical accuracy metrics, risk assessment, and calibration recommendations.